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北台区域包含台北都会区(台北市、新北市)、宜兰县、基隆市、桃园市、新竹县、新竹市、苗栗县等8个县市，本年度工作重点为旅次特性调查与分析，透过旅次特性调查及屏栅线交通量调查，掌握区域内旅次行为之变化，并完成目标年社经预测及现况运输系统供需分析，以及大数据资料与信令资料于模式应用与验证构想研析等，以利后续年度进行北台区域模式建构，完成北台区域供需预测分析，并研拟北台区域整体运输发展策略。相关研究成果如下： 1.    未来年北台区域社经发展趋势 (1)    北台人口占比预测未来仍持续上升，其中台北市、新北市、桃园市及新竹县市皆持续成长。 (2)    所得及汽机车数持有预期维持缓慢成长。 (3)    北台观光人口预期仍持续上升，于民国125年达到最高。 2.    北台旅次特性观察与分析 (1)    北台区域运具使用仍以机车、汽车等私人运具为主。 (2)    各旅次目的家-工作(HBW)以私人运具为主；家-学校(HBE)以大众运输使用占比相对其他旅次目的高；非家(NHB)旅次之步行占比相较其他旅次目的高。 (3)    平均旅次长度以台北都会区最高约为4.81公里/旅次。 (4)    北台区域各县市中，旅次率介于1.77~1.97次/人，整体旅次率以新竹1.97次/人为最高，基隆1.77次/人为最低。 3.    北台区域信令资料分析 以旅次产生率、旅次长度，与旅次分布等因子，进行旅次特性调查资料验证，经检视信令资料与原始家访调查结果特性相近，惟信令资料在应用上仍有诸多限制，后续应用仍待进一步观察。

　　英文内容大要：The Northern Taiwan area includes eight counties and cities, which are Taipei metropolitan areas (Taipei City and New Taipei City), Yilan County, Keelung City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County, Hsinchu City and Miaoli City. The focus of this year’s work will be on the survey and analysis of trip characteristics. Through the survey of trip characteristics and the screen-line traffic volume, we will be able to grasp the changes of trips within the area complete the forecast of the target year’s socioeconomics analyze the supply and demand of the existing transportation systems The big data and cellular signaling data are applied in the model and the verification conception is proposed to facilitate the construction of the Northern Taiwan regional model in the follow-up years, to complete the analysis of supply and demand forecasts in the Northern Taiwan area, and to develop a strategy for the overall transportation development in the Northern Taiwan area. The relevant research achievement are as follows: 1. The future trend of the socioeconomics (1) The proportion of population in the Northern Taiwan area is expected to continue to rise in the future for most of the counties and cities, including Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City and Hsinchu City/County. (2) The revenues and the number of car/motor ownership are expected to continue to grow slowly (3) The tourism population in the Northern Taiwan area is still expected to continue to rise, reaching to the peak in year 2036. 2. Observe and analyze of trip characteristics (1) The private vehicle, such as cars and motors, are the main mode choice of the Northern Taiwan area. (2) The main mode choice of HBW trips is private car. HBE trips use higher proportion of public transportation than other trips. NHB trips have the highest proportion of walking among all trips. (3) The average trip length in Taipei metropolitan areas is 4.81 km per trip, which is the highest among all areas. (4) The average trip rate is around 1.77 to 1.97 trips per person. Hsinchu area has the highest (1.97 trips per person) and Keelung area has the lowest (1.77 trips per person). 3. The significant characteristics such as trip generation rate, trip length and trip distribution are applied to verify the survey data of trip characteristics. By examining the result, the cellular signaling data is similar to the home-interview survey results. However, follow-up applications of cellular signaling data are yet to be observed as it still has many limitations in application.

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北台区域整体运输规划：旅次特性调查与供需分析　107黄 电子书 下载 mobi epub pdf txt 2025

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