The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World（英文版） pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2025

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圖書標籤:

• Earthquakes
• Seismology
• Geophysics
• Disaster Prediction
• Risk Assessment
• Probability
• Plate Tectonics
• Natural Disasters
• Earth Science
• Forecasting

本書主要目的在評估全球及世界各分區，未來數十年大地震發生的機率。作者利用新的地震活動度迴歸公式，計算全球及主要地震帶，不同規模的大地震在特定時間段的發生機率。 這本書是作者五十多年來，為瞭減輕地震災害，緻力於地球物理學及地震學的研究和教育，所積纍的具體成果。作者希望讀者發現本書使用的研究方法，有助於減少災難性地震造成的傷亡及破壞。
 
　　The primary purpose of this book is to present quantitative forecasting of the mid-term probability of large earthquakes both globally and over various regions of the world.  The author used the novel seismic activity regression formula to calculate the probability of an earthquake, in the global and major seismic zones, with any given magnitude at any given time since the most recent earthquake of the same magnitude. This book is the author's 50+ years accumulation of achievements in researching and teaching geophysics and seismology for mitigation of earthquake disasters. The author hopes that those after him will find the methodology in this book to be helpful in limiting the death and destruction caused by earthquakes of catastrophic magnitude.    

好評推薦

　　“This is an excellent summary of the life-long contributions of the author Dr. Yi-Ben Tsai, who has essentially led the initiation in 1960s and its subsequent development during the ensuing half Century, of the Taiwan Earthquake Research Program, which has led to one of the best and most productive seismological research enterprises in the world. Based on his Taiwan work, in this book Dr. Tsai further gives a comprehensive outline on the status of the earthquake science and hazards in the world that should be most valuable for professionals as well as the interested public.”– Ta-Liang Teng, Professor of Geophysics and Seismology, University of Southern California, USA

　　“Dr. Yi-Ben Tsai had an extensive career as a research seismologist, an educator, academic/research administrator and in industry all in earthquake country. This book is the result of his labor of love – he recruited his whole family in the last stage of his writing to complete the manuscript. In this book, he based his seismicity forecast on a modified way to estimate Gutenberg-Richter relation with measure of uncertainty on the annual rate and applied the calculation to all major seismic regions of the world. It is a useful reference for readers concerned with the seismicity of the earth.”– Francis T. Wu, Professor of Geophysics, State University of New York at Binghamton, USA

　　“This is a wonderful book for those who are interested in earthquakes and the global tectonics.
In addition to the global seismicity, general seismotectonics are introduced in many regions where the next big earthquakes are expected.”– Sun-Lin Chung, Distinguished Research Fellow and Director, Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan

　　“The excellent book integrates global seismicity data, plate tectonics and quantitative forecasting of the probability of large earthquakes both globally and over various regions of the world. It is a must-read for students, academics, and professionals in seismic geosciences.”– Ching-Hua Lo, NTU Chair Professor of Geosciences and Executive Vice President, National Taiwan
 
　　“Prof. Tsai is a pioneer for Earth Sciences studies in Taiwan. His vision in earthquake science and engineering brought significant impact to the society of Taiwan for earthquake hazard mitigation. This book compiled the global seismicity to bring in the attention of high seismic hazard region, and provide fundamental message for earthquake science and engineering.”– Kuo-Fong Ma, Professor and Chair of Earthquake - Disaster & Risk Management (E-DREaM) Center, National Central University, Taiwan

　　“A great book for an excellent introduction of seismology as well as earthquake engineering. It provides a lot of practical experiences to face the next big earthquakes.”– Yih-Min Wu, Professor of Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taiwan

　　“Professor Yi-Ben Tsai wrote this book based on his outstanding research presenting a complete analysis of global earthquake statistics. Professor Tsai devoted his life to earthquake observation and study. As a leader in the development of earth science and technology in Taiwan, he is a role model for global earth science researchers. This book is definitely worth recommending to students and teachers in universities and research institutes and also serves to commemorate professor Yi-Ben Tsai, the father of Taiwan seismology.”– Wen-Yen Chang, Distinguished Professor and Dean, College of Environmental Studies, National Dong Hwa University, Taiwan

　　“This is a great contribution to earthquake studies, with an innovative theory based on fundamental seismological knowledge. As Professor Tsai stated, hopefully the methodology in this book can be helpful in limiting the death and destruction caused by earthquakes. The data can be significant for policy makers or anyone making important decisions on earthquake preparedness.”– Yi-Heng Li, Senior Researcher of Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratory, Industrial Technology Research Institute, Taiwan
 
　　“This book is an excellent reference book for the patterns of global seismicity and the evaluation for the probabilities of large earthquakes in the world. Dr. Tsai devoted himself to the study of the seismic hazard and this book shows the passion of his work. For the scientific perspective and also in memory of Dr. Tsai, this book is worth having.”– Hao Kuo-Chen, Associate Professor of Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan

　　“An excellent manifest of the lifelong work and focus of a devoted seismologist on a pressing topic facing our society today and in the future. The theoretic derivation and explanation are clear; the data compilation and analysis are painstakingly comprehensive and detailed.”– Chin-Wu Chen, Assistant Professor of Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taiwan

《地球深處的耳語：地震預測的挑戰與前沿》 簡介 自古以來，地震的突然降臨一直是人類文明難以逾越的自然災害之一。那些無聲的、深藏於地殼之下的能量釋放，常常在瞬間將繁華化為瓦礫，給無數生命帶來難以磨滅的創傷。《地球深處的耳語：地震預測的挑戰與前沿》並非聚焦於某一特定地區或某一特定預測方法，而是深入剖析瞭全球地震學界在理解、監測和嘗試預測這一復雜現象過程中所麵臨的宏大挑戰、曆史性進展以及正在醞釀中的革命性技術。 本書旨在為地質學傢、地球物理學傢、工程技術人員乃至對自然災害有深刻關注的普通讀者，提供一幅關於當前地震科學前沿的詳盡全景圖。它跳脫齣純粹的數學模型或單一的觀測數據分析，轉而探討人類認知極限與地球內部動態過程之間的永恒博弈。 第一部分：地殼的沉默與爆發——理解地震的根源 本部分追溯瞭人類對地震現象的認識曆程，從古代神話的詮釋，到近代闆塊構造理論的建立，勾勒齣我們如何將零星的震動事件係統化地納入地球科學的宏大框架中。 我們首先檢視瞭闆塊構造動力學的核心原理。詳細闡述瞭俯衝帶、轉換斷層和裂榖等主要地震帶的物理機製，解釋瞭應力積纍、岩石蠕變與瞬時破裂之間的能量轉換過程。 隨後，本書深入探討瞭斷層帶的復雜性。斷層並非簡單的平麵，而是充滿著非均勻性、流體活動和摩擦條件的“戰場”。我們將介紹摩擦學在地震發生中的關鍵作用，討論慢地震（Slow Slip Events）和“靜力學轉換”（Tectonic Creep）現象如何重塑我們對鎖固區（Locked Zones）的理解。這些現象錶明，地殼的應力調整並非總以劇烈地震的形式錶現，其內在的復雜性遠超簡單的彈性迴跳理論。 第二部分：信號的迷宮——地球發齣的微弱訊號 地震預測的難點，在於其前兆信號的稀疏性、微弱性以及極高的假陽性率。本部分專注於係統梳理當前科學界正在探索的、被認為是潛在地震前兆的各種地球物理和地球化學指標。 我們詳盡分析瞭地應力變化與形變監測技術。重點介紹瞭高精度GNSS（全球導航衛星係統）網絡在毫米級形變監測上的巨大突破，以及InSAR（乾涉閤成孔徑雷達）技術如何提供大範圍地錶形變的直觀視圖。同時，本書探討瞭應力變化如何影響地下流體的物理性質，進而引發電磁場、重力和熱流的異常變化。 對地球電磁異常現象的討論占據瞭重要篇幅。地震前地下岩石破裂過程中釋放的電荷、地殼電阻率的變化，以及可能齣現的VLF/ULF（甚低頻/超低頻）電磁波擾動，都被進行瞭嚴謹的科學審視。本書強調區分地質噪聲與真正前兆信號的睏難性。 此外，本書還探討瞭地下流體與氣體地球化學的變化。例如，氡氣（Radon）排放濃度的突然升高，以及地下水化學成分（如氦、氬同位素比例）的細微變化，是如何被作為潛在指標進行長期監測的。本書批判性地評估瞭這些指標的可靠性，強調瞭建立多參數、交叉驗證機製的必要性。 第三部分：建模的藝術與科學——從混沌中尋找秩序 地震的發生機製本質上是一個高度非綫性的混沌係統。本部分側重於理論物理學和計算科學如何試圖捕捉和模擬這種復雜性。 我們深入討論瞭統計物理學方法在地震預測中的應用。重點介紹瞭泊鬆過程與鞅過程在描述地震發生概率上的局限性，以及重尾分布（Power-Law Distributions），如Gutenberg-Richter定律，在描述震級分布中的核心地位。 本書詳細闡述瞭物理模型（Physics-Based Models）的最新進展。這包括使用有限元方法（FEM）模擬斷層帶內部的復雜應力傳遞，以及結閤摩擦定律建立的動力學破裂模型。研究人員正試圖構建能夠模擬從微小滑動到全麵破裂的整個過程的精細化模型。 此外，信息論與機器學習在處理海量監測數據中的潛力被充分挖掘。本書介紹瞭如何利用先進的算法識彆數據中的微弱模式，區分隨機背景噪聲和可疑的集群活動，盡管強調瞭深度學習模型在缺乏足夠“正樣本”（即被證實的前兆信號）時的挑戰性。 第四部分：未來展望與社會責任 地震預測不僅僅是純粹的科學問題，它還深刻關係到社會韌性、城市規劃和災害管理。 本書展望瞭新型傳感技術的集成趨勢，包括分布式光縴傳感（DAS）技術在監測斷層蠕變和微震活動中的應用，以及利用深井鑽探獲取地殼深部實時的物理化學數據。 最後，本書嚴肅探討瞭概率預報與社會溝通的倫理睏境。在科學尚未能提供精確時間點預報的情況下，如何嚮公眾傳達基於概率的風險信息，如何避免“狼來瞭”效應，以及如何將科學研究成果轉化為有效的預警係統和減災策略，是當代地震學傢必須麵對的社會責任。 《地球深處的耳語》是一部關於耐心、創新和對地球深層力量敬畏之心的作品。它揭示瞭人類正站在理解地球內部機製的前沿，每一次新的發現，都讓我們更接近那個終極目標——在毀滅降臨之前，聽到地球深處的耳語，並提前做好準備。

作者簡介

Professor Yi-Ben Tsai

　　March 23, 1940 - January 31, 2018
 
　　Professor Tsai was born in a poor farming family of nine children in Taiwan.

　　With an unwavering belief in the importance of education, Professor Tsai earned a degree in Electrical Engineering from National Taiwan University in 1962.

　　After losing two sisters due to flash floods caused by a typhoon in 1959, Professor Tsai turned his efforts to mitigating the effects of natural disasters.

　　In 1965, Professor Tsai graduated from National Central University in Taiwan with a Master’s Degree in Geophysics. Professor Tsai then moved to the United States to pursue a doctorate in Geophysics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He graduated from MIT in 1969 with a PhD in Geophysics, specializing in Seismology.

　　In 1973, Professor Tsai moved back to Taiwan with his young family and started his earthquake study journey.

　　For more than 50 years, Professor Tsai devoted his life to the study and teaching of Geophysics and Seismology for the purpose of planning for, and mitigating the effects of, earthquakes. He focused in particular on the areas of seismic telemetry network, strong motion observation networks, earthquake early warning systems, and precursor observations which can improve prediction ability and ultimately minimize loss of life.

　　Professor Tsai was awarded many honors in Taiwan, including: Distinguished Alumni from National Central University, Outstanding Scholar Award from Foundation for the Advancement of Outstanding Scholarship, Outstanding Science and Technology Award, and the Ten Outstanding Young Men Award. He was also known as the “Son of Earthquakes” in Taiwan due to his contributions to earthquake research and prediction in Taiwan. Professor Tsai was the founding director of the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica in Taiwan and the founding dean of the College of Earth Sciences, National Central University. He has nurtured countless talented seismologists with the hope that they carry his legacy forward.

Acknowledgements

Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose of this Book
1.2 Outline of this Book

Chapter 2 Earthquakes and Global Plate Tectonics
2.1 Earthquake Epicenters in the World
2.2 Hypocenter Depths of Earthquakes in the World
2.3 Global Plate Tectonic Theory

Chapter 3 Data Used
3.1 Data Availability
3.2 Selective uses of the data in three periods

Chapter 4 Method for Forecasting Probabilities of Large Earthquakes
4.1 The methodology
4.2 Step 1: Calculating the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rates and corresponding standard deviations for a series of magnitudes
4.3 Step 2: Obtaining the alternative Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relation
4.4 Step 3: Obtaining the relation for the recurrence interval, T, as a function of M
4.5 Step 4: Calculating the cumulative probability of earthquakes as a function of T, CPF(T)
4.6 Step 5: Forecasting the probabilities of large earthquakes

Chapter 5 Global Earthquakes in Different Depth Ranges
5.1 Distribution of global earthquakes in six depth ranges
5.2 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 0-33 km
5.3 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 33-70 km
5.4 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 70-150 km
5.5 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 150-300 km
5.6 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 300-500 km
5.7 Global earthquakes in the depth range of 500-800 km

Chapter 6 Eastern Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt
6.1 Eastern Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt
6.2 Eastern Aleutian Arc-Central Alaska
6.3 Southeastern Alaska and British Columbia
6.4 Cascadia Region
6.5 Northern California
6.6 Southern California
6.7 Gulf of California
6.8 Southwest Coast of Mexico
6.9 Central America
6.10 Caribbean Region
6.11 Colombia-Ecuador-Peru
6.12 Chile and Northern Argentina

Chapter 7 Western Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt
7.1 Western Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt
7.2 Western Aleutian Islands
7.3 Kamchatka-Kuril Islands-Hokkaido
7.4 Japanese Tohoku Region
7.5 Japanese Nankai Region
7.6 Mariana Islands
7.7 Ryukyu Islands
7.8 Taiwan Region
7.9 Southern Taiwan-Luzon Island Region
7.10 The Philippine Islands
7.11 Celebes-Moluccas-Timor Islands Region
7.12 Papua New Guinea-Solomon Islands 148
7.13 Vanuatu-New Caledonia Islands 152
7.14 Tonga-Kermadec-New Zealand (North Island)
7.15 New Zealand

Chapter 8 Java-Sumatra, Andaman-Nicobar Islands and Eurasian Continent
8.1 Eurasian Continent
8.2 Java-Sumatra Islands
8.3 Andaman-Nicobar Islands
8.4 Myanmar-Southeast Asia
8.5 Himalaya-Eastern Asia
8.6 Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia-Iran-Caucasus
8.7 Turkey-Greece-Romania
8.8 Alps-Italy-Slovenia-Bosnia
8.9 Western Europe-North Africa
8.10 Northern China-Lake Baikal

Chapter 9: Canada-Conterminous United States
9.1 Canada
9.2 Conterminous United States
9.3 U.S. Central-Eastern Region
9.4 U.S. Intermountain Region
9.5 U.S. Western Region

Chapter 10: Mid-Oceanic Ridges-Transform Faults
10.1 Arctic Ocean
10.2 Northern Atlantic Ocean
10.3 Southern Atlantic Ocean
10.4 Southern Indian Ocean
10.5 Northern Indian Ocean
10.6 East Africa
10.7 Southern Pacific Ocean
10.8 Hawaii Islands
10.9 Global Mid-Oceanic Ridges

References
Professor Yi-Ben Tsai
Special Thanks

评分☆☆☆☆☆

看到《The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World》這本書，我首先聯想到的就是那些在監測地震方麵默默付齣的科學傢們。在颱灣，我們深受地震之苦，也因此對地震的預測和防範有著天然的關注。這本書的英文原版，聽起來就是一本集結瞭全球頂尖智慧的著作，它試圖揭示“大地震的概率”，這本身就是一個極其宏大且充滿挑戰的課題。 我非常好奇，這本書是如何定義“大地震”的？ 它的衡量標準是什麼？ 是指震級，還是破壞力？ 進而，它又是如何去“預測”這些“大地震”的“概率”的？ 是僅僅依靠曆史數據迴溯，還是采用瞭更前沿的地球物理學方法？ 我想象，書中可能涉及瞭大量關於闆塊構造、斷層活動、甚至地球內部物質流動的復雜模型。而且，“Probability”這個詞，讓我覺得這本書的視角非常客觀和科學，它不會給我們一個虛假的“包票”，而是提供一種基於數據和科學分析的“可能性”。 這本書會不會深入探討不同地區的地質構造差異，以及這些差異如何影響大地震發生的概率？ 比如，在太平洋火環帶，以及像我們颱灣這樣的碰撞型闆塊邊緣，發生大地震的機製是否有所不同？ 我也期待，書中會不會介紹一些關於地震預測的“曆史性時刻”，比如有哪些重要的理論突破，或者有哪些曾經被認為是“不可能”的預測，最終卻被證明是正確的。 讀一本這樣的書，感覺就像是打開瞭一個通往地球深處奧秘的窗口，讓我能夠更理性地認識地震，以及我們如何在這個充滿活力的星球上，更好地與之共存。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

《The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World》這本書，聽起來就有一種“大智慧”的感覺，而且是那種關於我們腳下這顆星球最原始、最深刻的智慧。作為在颱灣生活的人，我們對地震的感受太深刻瞭，小震不斷，大震讓人心悸。所以，這本書的副標題“Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes”簡直就是為我量身定做的。我一直在思考，有沒有可能真的有人類的方法，能夠讓我們對未來可能發生的、具有毀滅性的大地震，有一個更清晰的“概率圖”？ 這本書會不會帶我們走進那些科學傢們的實驗室，瞭解他們是如何通過收集和分析海量的地震數據來構建預測模型的？ 我腦海中浮現齣各種可能性：是不是有某種隱藏在地殼深處的“語言”是我們還沒有學會解讀的？ 或者是，通過監測某些微妙的地錶變形，我們就能提前捕捉到大地震的“脈搏”？ 我相信，這本書絕對不會僅僅停留在理論層麵，它肯定會用大量的案例來佐證它的觀點。想象一下，閱讀關於某次曆史性大地震發生前，科學傢們是如何通過他們的模型來評估概率的，這本身就是一件非常吸引人的事情。而且，“Probability”這個詞，讓我覺得這本書很可能不是在給齣一個絕對的答案，而是在提供一種更科學、更理性的風險評估方式，這對於我們生活在地震帶上的人來說，比任何“迷信”的預測都更有價值。 我甚至希望，這本書能幫助我理解，在麵對不可避免的地震威脅時，我們作為普通人，如何能夠更好地“準備”和“應對”，而不僅僅是恐懼。

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哇！《The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World》這本書的光名字聽起來就超吸引人的！我一直對地震這種大自然力量感到既敬畏又好奇，尤其是在颱灣這個地震帶上生活，常常會感受到地殼的脈動。這本書的英文原版，聽起來就是一場硬核的知識冒險。光是“Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes”這個副標題，就讓我腦補齣無數個畫麵：那些復雜的科學模型、密集的統計數據，還有科學傢們夜以繼日地試圖解讀地球發齣的信號。我常常在想，我們是不是真的能掌握預測地震的鑰匙？這本書會不會揭示一些我們 bisher 聞所未聞的預測方法？比如，會不會講到那些隱藏在地殼深處的微小變化，或是太陽活動對地震的影響？ 我猜想，作者一定花費瞭大量心血去搜集全球各地的地震資料，從遙遠的日本到太平洋彼岸的美國西海岸，甚至是我們寶島颱灣的每一次震動，都可能是他們分析的對象。 我特彆期待書中會不會齣現一些具體的案例分析，比如某一次大地震發生前，有哪些被忽略的“預兆”？ 或者，書中會不會討論到，即使是概率預測，又能為我們爭取多少寶貴的準備時間？ 作為一個普通讀者，我渴望瞭解這些高深的科學知識，但又怕被晦澀的術語淹沒。希望這本書在科學嚴謹的同時，也能用一種相對易懂的方式呈現，讓像我這樣的非專業人士也能窺見預測地震的神秘麵紗。

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說實話，我最近有點失眠，經常會在半夜醒來，腦子裏就會閃過“萬一地震來瞭怎麼辦”的念頭。尤其是在新聞裏看到其他國傢發生大地震的畫麵，那種無力感和恐懼感真的會撲麵而來。所以，當我在書店裏看到《The Next Big Ones》這本書，它的英文名字聽起來就很有分量，而且副標題“Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World”，簡直是直擊我的痛點！我一直在尋找能夠給我一些“心裏安慰”或者“實實在在幫助”的書籍，這本書聽起來就非常有潛力。 我很好奇，這本書會不會深入探討不同地區地震發生的概率差異？ 颱灣的地理位置特殊，屬於環太平洋地震帶，這使得我們發生地震的頻率相對較高。我希望能在這本書裏找到關於我們這個區域的詳細分析，瞭解我們麵臨的風險有多大，以及有哪些科學的手段在被用來評估這些風險。 而且，“Forecasting the Probability”這個說法，讓我聯想到很多關於概率統計的知識，不知道書裏會不會介紹一些有趣的統計模型，或者用一些生動的比喻來解釋復雜的概率計算。 我還想象，這本書會不會介紹一些曆史上著名的地震預測嘗試，無論成功還是失敗，這些故事本身就充滿瞭戲劇性。 也許，書中還會提到一些關於地震預警係統的最新進展，畢竟，即使不能精確預測，及時的預警也能大大降低傷亡。 能夠看到一本如此深入探討全球地震預測的書，感覺像是掌握瞭一些“秘密武器”，至少能讓我對未知的風險有更清晰的認識，而不是憑空猜測和恐懼。

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這本書的英文版《The Next Big Ones：Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes in the World》，光是書名就足夠讓人肅然起敬瞭。我對地震一直有一種近乎迷戀的研究興趣，總覺得那是一種最能體現地球生命力的現象。當我知道這本書是關於“預測大地震概率”的，我的第一反應就是：“這絕對是乾貨！” 想象一下，這本書裏會包含多少令人驚嘆的科學研究成果？它會不會深入剖析那些導緻超級地震發生的深層地質構造？比如，闆塊邊界的應力積纍機製，或者是某些特定區域地幔深處的異常活動，這些都是我一直以來非常好奇的。 我特彆希望能在這本書裏看到一些關於“時間預測”的討論。我知道精確到某年某月某日幾乎是不可能的，但“概率”本身就意味著一種時間尺度上的可能性。這本書會不會提供一些模型，能夠讓我們對未來幾十年甚至上百年內發生大地震的“窗口期”有一個大緻的判斷？ 另外，作者在“Forecasting the Probability”這個概念上，肯定是用瞭很多前沿的科學方法。我猜想，他們一定運用瞭大量的地震波數據、地殼變形測量、甚至衛星遙感技術來構建他們的預測模型。書中會不會分享一些具體的案例，展示這些模型是如何運作的，以及它們在實際預測中發揮的作用？ 我還對書中會不會涉及一些“不可預測因素”的討論感到好奇。畢竟，自然界充滿瞭未知，大地震的發生可能還受到一些我們尚未完全理解的因素的影響。這本書能否給我們提供一些關於這些“不確定性”的思考？